Will Marine Le Pen win the 2017 French Presidential Election?
Now the deadline for our April 22nd Mettletest question has passed you can see what our experts had to say:
Derek Wyatt: No
It would be a brave man or woman to predict the French elections given the last extraordinary two years which have given us Corbyn, Brexit, May and Trump. I doubt if any punter made that sort of bet. So, naturally, anyone who puts his/her head above the parapet, risks his/her life. The French Presidential elections are slightly different. Any number of candidates can seek the position. But unusually there are two elections (assuming no candidate wins an outright majority), the first is like an over large semi final political football match where there can only be two candidates who go forward to the finals. This Sunday the candidates are Francois Filon, Emanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Benoit Hanon and another six – to be frank – hopeless candidates. The play off is likely to be one from Filon, Macron and Le Pen though to be honest the polls cannot make up their minds. Luckily polls don’t generally vote. So, my hunch is that Le Pen may no make the play offs but if she does she cannot win on Sunday week.
Sir Jeremy Greenstock: No
Sir Jeremy is away but here is message from his strategic advisory company, Gatehouse Advisory Partners:
The Gatehouse view is that Marine Le Pen will find it tough to successfully negotiate the 2-stage Presidential election process – despite the absence of a stand-out mainstream candidate. Her chances of success in a second round are low – but dependent on who she runs against. So we would suggest , No, Marine Le Pen will not win the 2017 French Presidential election.
& oh, oh! First part of my premise WRONG! Melenchon not through to the final round, though not far behind….
John Karslake: Yes
The likely front runners are Jean-Luc Melenchon, Francois Fillon, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. Fillon is experienced but dogged by scandal, so Macron looks like the leading center candidate. Melenchon represents the left, cool on the EU and anti globalisation. Le Pen on the far right is xenophobic and anti Euro and may have undeclared support. Controversially, I think Marine Le Pen could pull it off. It is generally thought that she will get through the first round but then lose in the second, when most voters consolidate behind Emmanuel Macron. But this could all change if Jean-Luc Melenchon actually beats Macron in the first round. This COULD happen. Melenchon has led a vitalised campaign and shown a strong advance in the polls to level with one-time front runner, Francois Fillon. It is possible that he will win waverers who want to cast a protest vote against the status quo, the EU and globalisation, as represented by Macron. They would expect to be able to revert to safety in the second round but might find that they are left with Le Pen vs. Melenchon. What then? In this scenario Le pen would probably prevail and win the second round to become president.
Image from The Daily Telegraph