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Will the USA impose any new sanctions or tariffs on China before the end of October 2017?
You can now read what our experts, Sir Jeremy Greenstock and Derek Wyatt had to say on the subject. There is a clear NO answer. Does this match your view?
Sir Jeremy Greenstock: No
NO. In light of DPRK acitivity, some form of targeted action on companies and individuals is possible, but unilateral sanctions on China are unlikely until after the President’s visit to Beijing, scheduled for November. Trade will feature on President Trump’s agenda during his visit (the Trump administration is still packed with trade-hawks), and he will use trade as a lever in conversations with President Xi – so is unlikely to initiate trade sanctions beforehand and lose the negotiating leverage. Additionally, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, both with commercial interests in China, are going to Beijing in September for a “preparatory” visit – given the Trumps’ propensity to mix politics with business, this would be a particularly unfortunate time to sour bilateral relations further. (As far as North Korea goes, beyond the tough rhetoric, President Trump is aware Xi’s support will be crucial to handle the North Korean crisis [he recently demonstrated this by pulling planned sanctions to pass a resolution in the Security Council]. As history has repeatedly demonstrated in Iraq before North Korea, sanctions are blunt tools in foreign policy and another round is unlikely to cause a radical behavioural shift in either Beijing or Pyongyang).
More on Sir Jeremy Greenstock and Gatehouse Advisory Partners
Derek Wyatt: No
It is hard to predict what the USA will do from day to day such is the state of play in the White House. A tweet one day is corrected the next. Any statement from the Commander in Chief has to be taken with a pinch of salt as we know he struggles to understand foreign affairs. The thought that President Trump would do something hasty on China given his in-box is fall of huff and puff is hard to believe. He has his hands full with North Korea (inaction), the Middle East (total inaction), Yemen (turn a blind eye) and ISIS ( no credible policy). Trump does not know how to handle China. China plays the long game. She does not use foreign policy as a way of spreading her political system. She uses global capitalism to shore up her domestic growth. She holds trillions of dollars and euros. So, unsurprisingly my answer is No. There will be no new sanctions by the end of next month.
More on Derek Wyatt here
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